Prediction Time

Since everyone and their mother has been wrong about everything recently, I’ve decided it’s time for me to outline a few of my own predictions in black and white so that I will be able to grade myself.

1. Total hate crimes incidents as measured by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report will be not more than one standard deviation of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology [confidence: 80%]

2. The number of Hate Crime Hoaxes will skyrocket 150% within Trump’s first year as president. [Confidence: 90%]
3. Both Gay marriage and Abortion will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency [Confidence: 99%]
4. Race relations will do better under Trump than they did under Obama, as tracked through Gallup, Pew or similar Gold Star research think tank. [confidence: 90%].

5. Number of deportations under a Trump Administration will outpace (year for year) Obama (excluding catch and release). [Confidence: 50%]
6. LibDems Will continue, in large part(candidates vying for leadership positions), to play identity politics for the first two years of a Trump administration. [Confidence: 90%]

7. “Monitoring” of Mosques or other Muslim communities will not occur on a large scale (Excluding lists of direct threats) = (No “list or registry” longer than 10,000 names). [Confidence: 65%]

8. Military presence globally decreases by one standard deviation within first year. Measured by number of occupied bases, number of troops in hostile nations, number of countries being attacked. [Confidence: 60%]

9: ACA will be gutted and replaced with a quasi-republican version that is very similar.

10. Population of Muslims and other minorities will increase under Trump [Confidence: 80%]

11. Le Pen will defeat Fillon in France and Trump will make at least one visit to congratulate her within her first 100 days. [Confidence: 50%]

12. Trump will use both @POTUS and @RealDonaldTrump as President to communicate directly with citizens. [Confidence: 80%]

If you would like to discuss or make a friendly wager of your own, feel free to leave a comment.

 

Cheers

-lp

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